Portfolio

Jaeseok Hwang

Research, code, and decision analytics

• Ph.D. (Aug 2026) in Applied Economics, UIUC.
• This page brings together my dissertation chapters and individual research portfolio, with a focus on producer risk management under price and environmental shocks. Methodologically, I work with supervised machine learning, including XGBoost and Random Forest, together with causal inference and spatial analytics.

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Project(Papers)

Chapter 1

Transferability of Multi-Field Information

Keywords: transferability, spatial heterogeneity, holdout validation

Open summary GitHub repo

Chapter 2

Information Validity and Profitability Risk

Keywords: profitability risk, exogenous shocks, Bayesian hierarchy

Open summary GitHub repo

Chapter 3

Value of Information in Stochastic Environments

Keywords: value of information, stochastic environments, causal inference

Open summary GitHub repo

New research

Macro Scenario Monitoring

Keywords: sell-side macro research, commodity transmission, scenario scoring

This project is now organized as a two-track Vol. 1 research hub around the U.S.-Iran war scenario. One branch studies energy and food as commodity-to-macro transmission channels; the other studies the same event as a sell-side macro forecasting and market-decision problem.

The hub introduces the scenario structure and then splits the work into a commodity branch and an investment branch. The investment branch remains a live public desk note built from public data, lagged signal checks, and explicit scenario scoring.

Open Vol. 1 hub Website repo